From the Archives
At a friend’s instigation, I attended an evening event at the RSA. Modestly entitled ‘How to Change the Future’, the lecture promised to tackle ‘How we solve the seemingly intractable economic, social and environmental challenges we face in the 21st century’. Frankly cynical after a long day, I could hear my sofa calling.
Having read and enjoyed the speaker Adam Kahane’s books Solving Tough Problems and Power and Love: A Theory and Practice of Social Change, my friend (who runs a community-based charity in East London) was very keen to see him speak. She was right to be; a thoughtful, beaming and avuncular presence, he has the rare skill of wearing his intelligence very lightly and of making his ideas on addressing huge challenges sound genuinely feasible. His warmth and clarity, and the work that he has done, were an inspiration and I was so glad to have made the effort.
“Listen to him for a moment, and you know you’re dealing with someone who has a vision of what it takes to build a better world. He’s seen how good organizations can take fatal missteps, and how seemingly-implacable enemies can embrace the need for peaceful change. He knows that avoiding the missteps and getting to the peaceful change is simple – but by no means easy”.
Adam Kahane’s argument is that business, government and civil society leaders who attempt to address major problems often find themselves stuck and frustrated. Given that the examples of his work mentioned at the RSA included South Africa at the end of apartheid, violent political struggle in Colombia and post-dictatorship Guatemala, you can begin to imagine the scale and significance of the challenges.
The individuals involved have generally failed to solve their problems in the current context, which is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They can’t transform this intractable situation on their own—it’s too large or complex to be resolved by any one person or organization or sector. And those whose cooperation they need don’t understand them, agree with them or trust them, or each other.
Adam Kahane’s response to this is transformative scenario planning, which has evolved from the work that he, amongst others, used so successfully at Royal Dutch/Shell in London. It takes the well-established methodology of adaptive scenario planning — rigorously constructing a set of stories of alternative possible futures — and turns it on its head. It uses scenarios not only to understand and adapt to the future but also to challenge and change it.
The sessions enable opponents to see and consider choices; in some of the dire situations in which he has worked, this has meant looking for the first time beyond brutality, military force and political dominance. In South Africa in 1991, the Mont Fleur scenario project allowed leaders from a number of factions to create a compelling, cooperative vision of a new nation; in seemingly-overwhelming crises, success is possible.
Participants from over 50 countries have included executives and politicians, generals and guerrillas, civil servants and trade unionists, community activists and UN officials, clergy and artists.
Whilst he was modest about the success rate of this work (approximately 50%, he guessed) and was clear about its status as only one of a range of tools for addressing deep-rooted problems, it was immensely impressive to hear about his role in bringing together people with very diverse views (sometimes long-established and implacable enemies) to acknowledge firstly, and most significantly, that things cannot continue as they are.
As in Colombia, it may take a bloody and lengthy progress working one-by-one through the least desirable scenarios imagined in order to get to a better place. The new government is led by one of those who invited Adam Kahane to help tackle the continent’s longest-running civil conflict, and appears to be focused on the best of the possible futures discussed – as are the guerilla leaders, who have issued statements saying they have no alternative but to negotiate and are ready for dialogue.
Like most of us living in relative comfort who don’t have to deal with life and death issues daily, I can very easily lose perspective and get complacent in my opinions. Adam Kahane’s work is a tonic, offering a model for the kind of mature problem-solving that can be applied to all kinds of issues, big and small. Let’s hope that this approach is used to tackle climate change, and quickly.
I’d recommend a look at Adam Kahane’s previous talk at the RSA (follow the link to the video) . The programme of evening talks at the RSA is also great – there’s something for everyone, and if you can’t make it they’re simultaneously broadcast on the web.
Written by Zoë Blake
